To paraphrase the immortal words of Truman Capote, there’s a difference between writing and typing. And, to put it gently, we can say with a good amount of confidence that most self-published books were typed, not written. Because communicating with letters assembled into words is a skill most learn by the age of 5, and because written communication has become so ubiquitous in American life, everyone now thinks he’s a writer. Until recently, the publishing industry had been our sea wall, protecting us from a tidal wave of boring life stories and dreadful novels. But now, the ease of self-publishing threatens to drown us all in mediocrity. Here are nine signs the situation is out of control.

1.    The estimated 700,000 self-publishing authors around the world

In a world of 6.8 billion people, 700,000 trying to make it big by self-publishing may not seem very significant. But compare it to the number of books traditionally published in America each year: 80,000. Of those, one author says, “most of them [are] not needed, not wanted, not in any way remotely necessary.” Assuming the U.S. makes up just one-tenth of the market (almost certainly a low estimate), AND assuming each author has the decency to self-publish only one title, that means self-publishers stand to nearly double the number of books published in the world every year.

2.    The 20,000 titles Lulu adds each month

Lulu is a self-publishing company that has been in business since 2002 and is generally regarded as the leader in the field. One need look no further for proof that self-publishing is getting out of hand than the Lulu web site that reveals the company publishes 20,000 titles for unpublished authors every single month. The site shows no signs of slowing, as 12,000 new “creators” sign up every week, and the number of titles is growing about 10% each month. But as the founder of the company says, the average run is “less than two.”

3.    The many seriously considering whether self-publishing is a bubble on the verge of popping

Basically, an economic bubble is created when a good is bought and sold at a much higher price than it is really worth. For example, the dot-com bubble burst when traders realized Internet companies had no way to justify the hundreds of millions of dollars at which their worth was being valued. Pundits are now looking hard at the massive popularity of self-publishing and asking: How long until self-publishers realize tens of thousands of them have grossly overvalued their products and the market crashes?

4.    The huge influx of companies to the industry

The dilemma of finding a publisher is no more; say hello to the dilemma of choosing which publisher is right for you. From Author Solutions to Author House, from Booktango to BookSurge, there is a plenitude of publishers from which to choose to help you produce your book. But there’s also an entire sub-industry that has sprung into being from the self-publishing movement: the “how to self-publish” manual industry. Like any “get-rich-quick“-style book, these books will always sell better than the vast majority of the books they encourage people to self-publish.

5.    The giant number of ebooks available for free

Millions of titles are available for free download in various formats. The average price of a self-published Kindle ebook for titles in the Top 100 on Amazon was $1.40, and this price is trending downward. Although many of the free titles hosted by companies like Amazon are books in the public domain, a huge mass of them are self-published titles that first-time authors are giving away for free in the hopes of receiving exposure. This means that deserving works are buried in the pile, and there is just too much for customers to sort through.

6. The respected voices advising everyone to self-publish

As if self-publishers needed any more encouragement, many visible commentators are using their platforms to breathlessly urge everyone who considers themselves a writer (which is basically everyone) to self-publish. On Dec. 13, 2011, USA Today featured a story about self-publishing success story Michael Prescott, who is “threatening to change the face of publishing” with his enormous success. “It’s a gold rush out there,” Prescott proclaims in the article. Over at Techcrunch.com six weeks later, traditionally-published and self-published author, blogger, and investment guru James Altucher was advising every entrepreneur to self-publish a book, basically anointing books the new business cards in the process.

7. The 4.2 billion words published by Smashwords

As one of the first comers to the new self-publisher industry, Smashwords alone has published more than 80,000 books since being created in 2008. It took one company less than four years to match the annual total of traditionally-published books in the U.S. To date, authors have smashed a whopping 4,242,989,557 words into their self-published books.

8. The number of copies of self-published books that are selling

On average, authors who self-publish sell 100-150 copies of their book. Considering the average Facebook user has 130 friends, this is right in the wheelhouse for explaining who is buying most self-published books: friends and family of the author. Of course, as this is an average, there are a handful of breakout self-publishing authors who are keeping the number elevated and making up for the thousands of writers who sell 50 or 25 copies, or worse.

9. The eight out of 10 people who think they have a book in them

If there’s any doubt self-publishing is already out of control, millions of books could potentially be in the pipeline for self-publishing in the near future. The New York Times has reported that 81% of Americans think they have the makings of a book in their brains, and that they should publish that book. An estimated 25 million novels and how-to books have already been written by Internet users in the U.S. but have yet to be published. If just 1% of those authors self-publish, the country’s annual book publishing by traditional means would be instantly tripled.

*Today’s article was written and brought to you by the staff at www.accreditedonlinecolleges.com

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So, writers, what’s your take on the topic? Do you agree with the author of this article? Is self-publishing really out of control?

Note – Today’s article does not necessarily reflect the views of The Graveyard Shift. However, we do believe in giving all sides of any topic a fair shot at having their voice(s) heard…within reason.

We often post guest articles written by experts. And, normally I check the content for accuracy before posting. However, today one slipped past me. Fortunately, my pal Rick Helms was quick to step in to make sure our readers receive only the best information available. So, here’s the original article as submitted. Please read Rick’s comments below to see how things are really done.

The original article…

You’ve seen them on TV crime dramas. A potential suspect is wired to a machine via a series of sensors attached to his body while he is grilled by an expert operator with a series of probing questions. Eventually, a needle goes haywire, and the lie is revealed. Well, not so fast. There are some serious misconceptions about the lie detector test, and we’re going to discuss ten of them below:

1. The Name Itself– The first misconception to address is the very name lie detector test. It is more correctly known as a polygraph, and can be more accurately considered to be a truth verifier test, because …
2. They Don’t Detect Lies – Polygraphs can confirm that a person is responding truthfully to a question; however, the body functions that are monitored in a polygraph test will not specifically identify a lie, simply an abnormal physiological reaction.
3. They Are 100% Accurate – When administered by an experienced professional examiner, a polygraph test can be very accurate in establishing truth or indicating deception, but there are many factors that can alter their reliability.
4. They Are Not Admissible In Court – Contrary to the belief even among some lawyers, this is no longer universally true. There have been cases where polygraph results have been entered as evidence in trials.
5. You Can “Beat” A Polygraph Test – A professional examiner will conduct a polygraph in three phases – the pre-exam interview, the polygraph exam, and the post-exam interview – over the course of several hours. The exam will include control questions, which are designed to confirm the truthfulness of the responses.
6. Drugs Can Help You Beat The Exam – Drugs or medications won’t aid in defeating a polygraph. Part of the pre-exam phase is for the examiner to ensure that the subject is fit to take the exam, and verify if any medications have been taken.
7. Nerves Can Affect The Results Of A Test – Nervousness does not register in the same way the physiological response of the nervous system does during a polygraph. Also, the examiner will work with the subject throughout the process to ensure that they are as relaxed as possible.
8. Polygraphs Include Trick Questions Intended to Elicit A Response – In fact, the respondent will be made aware in advance, of every question he will be asked in the polygraph exam. There are no surprise questions.
9. Control Questions Are Standard Questions With Standard Responses – Not exactly. A control question is not something like “Is your last name Lipschitz”. The purpose of a control question is to induce the subject into giving a deceptive answer, so that the examiner can have reliable measurements of what a deceptive response will look like.
10. You Only Fail If You Lie – While polygraphs do have a high percentage of accuracy when administered by a well-trained and qualified examiner, it’s quite possible to be completely truthful and still “fail” a polygraph exam.

*Today’s article brought to you by www.nannybackgroundcheck.com

Now, for Rick Helms’ response to the above article. Remember, Rick is the expert, and his comments are spot on.

I was a practicing forensic psychologist for almost a quarter century, and I now teach college psychology, including a course on Forensic Psychology.

This article was written by a company that has a vested interest in the polygraph as part of their investigative processes. It is also erroneous in several different areas.

The polygraph has an error rate between 25-75%, mostly because–while it absolutely DOES measure physiological arousal on three different domains (blood pressure, pulse rate, respiration, and galvanic skin response)– it is impossible to know the reason for that arousal. Arousal is controlled by a system in the body called the Sympatho-Adreno-Medullary process, and it is entirely autonomic. We have no control over it whatsoever,and sometimes (such as in panic attacks) the SAM system activates for no determinable reason. If a doctor used a test that was wrong 25-75% of the time, he’d be sued out of business within a week.

Nervousness, unlike the statement in the article, is PRECISELY the type of arousal measured by the polygraph. Nervousness refers to a set of physiological responses involving elevated heart rate, increased blood pressure, increased sweating (galvanic skin response), and increase respiration, and is the result of the activation of the SAM system in response to an environmental threat–such as, say, being hooked up to a lie detector with your job or freedom on the line.

You absolutely CAN manipulate the results using drugs, such as beta blockers. Propranolol,for instance, in addition to slowing heart rate and reducing blood pressure, also appears to ‘turn off’ the SAM response, which would produce–at worst–an inconclusive polygraph result. This is one reason researchers are exploring the use of propranolol as a prophylactic to help prevent post-traumatic stress disorder. By stopping the extreme arousal and anxiety associated with the trauma, the drug prevents the formation of the classically-conditioned intrusive flashbacks and dreams and phobic responses symptomatic of PTSD. Propranolol cannot be detected during “pretest verifications” by polygraphers, mostly because they aren’t qualified to do such tests.

The absolute best way to beat the polygraph, of course, is to be born a psychopath. Because of structural differences in their brains (mostly surrounding areas in the limbic system associated with the SAM arousal process), they don’t experience physiological arousal when doing things like stealing or lying. Their test results will be–at worst–inconclusive. In some cases, they will be exculpatory.

Polygraph results may, as mentioned, be entered into evidence in court, but only by defense attorneys as exculpatory evidence, and any attorney who tries to do it is asking to have his ass handed to him because the prosecutor will pull in expert after expert to discredit the evidence.

The only people who truly endorse the polygraph as a method to differentiate between truth and mendacity are…surprise!…polygraphers. The polygraph is SO unreliable and imperfect that the United States Congress was compelled to pass the Polygraph Protection Act, which forbids businesses from using the polygraph as a hiring tool, mostly because it was found to be discriminatory and a poor indicator of lying.

Every article touting the ‘effectiveness’ of the polygraph also notes that it should be administered by “a well-trained and qualified examiner”. This is a psychological trick called the ‘halo effect’, and may actually be one of the few benefits of the polygraph. By establishing your own expertise, you endow a scientifically useless machine with powers it doesn’t have.

You could (and I have) hook a person up to a stereo receiver, claim it is a polygraph, and then tell the person–forcefully and confidently–that he is lying when he denies his guilt. On the majority of occasions, that person will break down after repeated confrontation and admit their culpability, mostly because they come to believe that the machine has ‘found them out’ due to the ‘polygrapher’s strong endorsement of it. Unfortunately, like many interrogation processes, the potential for false confessions is always there.

Like eyewitness testimony, which is notoriously unreliable, the polygraph has severe limitations and faults, and I have repeatedly told my students to refuse it, if offered, simply because it has no validity or true ability to differentiate between truth or lies.

In fact, the only completely accurate statement in the article is #10. You absolutely can fail this test even when you are telling the truth. In fact, that can happen as much as 25-75% of the time. As a result, I would suggest that, as a forensic tool, the polygraph is essentially useless. It does, however, make a lot of money for polygraphers, so it shouldn’t be surprising that they enthusiastically endorse it and promote it–erroneously–as a valid and reliable assessment tool.

Richard Helms

richardhelms.net

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Want to learn more about polygraph exams? How would you like to see the equipment in action? Well, the 2012 Writers’ Police Academy is featuring a detailed, hands-on polygraph workshop just for you! And, we’ve just secured more workshop and classroom space so we have a few open slots. Please hurry. Register today!